I think the following information is very note worthy to all of us in the housing market. The goal of providing Liquidity should help improve the availability of loan programs in the near future.
Federal Reserve Announces Highly Innovative Move (TSLF)
The Federal Reserve announced today that it will for the first time lend Treasuries in exchange for debt that includes mortgage-backed securities. In a statement this morning the central bank plans to make up to $200 billion available through weekly auctions. This represents a creative angle for the Fed to forge remedy in a non-traditional manner and was choreographed in conjunction w/injections of $45 billion from ECB, BOE, BOC and BOJ into their systems.
The Fed’s monumental, innovative move is designed to reliquify the mortgage market where in recent months it was becoming almost impossible to buy even AAA mortgage paper (i.e. Thornburg Mortgage) as no one had been willing to step up and take the risk. From a clearing standpoint, the Fed’s newly created Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) looks like a futures exchange which, in effect, offers collateral cleansing for mortgage paper. It’s important to note that the Fed is not monetizing “bad mortgages” or any mortgages for that matter, it is simply willing to take the paper in question and lend Treasuries against it.
I realize most of the attention today is on the equity markets but I want to share with you some “other” takeaways:
- The Federal Reserve’s move should prove to relieve balance sheet pressure on US banks and adds sorely needed liquidity to the mortgage markets.
- With this action the Fed is indicating it wants out of the rate cutting business which has exacerbated dollar currency woes that has led to excessive moves in commodity markets, fanned inflation, while depleting foreign capital out of US markets. Please note the ECB Chairman Trichet has been talking down the Euro over the last several days, signaling central bank coordination. The dollar no doubt is the fulcrum for much of our current market conditions.
- The Fed announcement almost assures there will be no interim rate cut prior to March 18 FOMC meeting which had been rumored (Goldman Sachs) over the last couple of days.
- In this non-traditional move the Fed will most likely enable investment banks to make more productive use of capital and will indirectly help hedge funds that have been seized up with illiquidity as they will now be able to “sanitize” their assets. By taking the troubled mortgage paper and depositing it into Fed vault for 28 days in exchange for T-Bills will allow for the “shoring up” of balance sheets.
- 2yr Treasuries sold off heavily on the announcement producing a 25bp swing up in yield.
- The Fed may be nearing the end of its rate cutting campaign and likelihood of an addl 75bp cut appears to have diminished altogether with this announcement. A rate cut of 25 to 50bps in Fed Funds may be more realistic for March 18 and may turn out to be the “final round” before the wait begins for signs of economic/market recovery.
- This may turn out to be a noteworthy event over the longer term and may one day be noted as a turning point in the current US economic and market contraction. Although in the immediate it spelled a sharp sell-off in near term Treasuries (no longer looking for 75bp Fed Funds cut) the longer term benefits may prove to be a freeing up of liquidity/investment capital that could slowly begin to re-energize among others, the real estate market. Low rates will accompany us for remainder of the year and the yield curve is in banks’ favor. This appears to be a good move, highly innovative and coordinated with other central banks. Apart from a 417 point rally in the Dow, there were other reasons to celebrate…
Michael J Haddad
Wachovia Wealth Management